Why are AI agents harder to evaluate than models?#
A model returns an answer and you grade the answer. An agent decides what to do next, calls tools, reacts to what comes back and can reach the same result by several routes or the wrong result by a plausible one. Two things follow. The trajectory has to be graded alongside the outcome, and a single run tells you very little.
Run-to-run variance is the part teams underestimate. Researchers at KTH collected 60,000 agent trajectories on a standard coding benchmark and found that single-run scores "vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected", with standard deviations above 1.5 points even at temperature zero. Their conclusion is the practical one: a reported improvement of two or three points may be noise. If an eval runs each case once, it is not yet a measurement.
How reliable are AI agent benchmarks?#
A score is a property of the instrument. Benchmarks are easy to quote and easy to misread. When OpenAI had 1,699 samples of the SWE-bench coding benchmark annotated by developers, it found 38.3% had underspecified problem statements and 61.1% had tests that could fail a valid solution. On the cleaned 500-sample subset the same model scored 33.2% against 16% on the original. Same model, same work, twice the score, because the ruler changed.
Cleaning it did not settle the matter either. A 2025 study found SWE-bench still counts 7.8% of patches as correct while they fail the developer's own tests, inflating reported resolution rates by 6.2 percentage points. Treat any single benchmark number as evidence about the benchmark first and the agent second.
One structural warning applies to any eval that uses a model to grade a model. When the grader shares a base model, a prompt or a context with the thing it is grading, its mistakes are not independent of the mistakes it is meant to catch — see correlated failure. A deterministic test, a different method or a person with different information is a stronger check than a second agent, however capable.
Evals also answer a narrower question than teams often assume. They test whether the agent did the job as specified; whether the job was worth doing is an outcome check, declared before the work starts and measured after release.
How do you build evals for an AI agent?#
Generic metrics are the common failure. Hamel Husain, whose writing is the reference point for most teams doing this seriously, puts it bluntly: "Generic metrics are worse than useless", because they create a false sense of progress and split attention across numbers nobody acts on. What works is a small set of cases drawn from your own failures, scored on criteria you wrote.
Most teams grade with another model, and that model is an instrument with a known error rate. The original study of the technique put agreement between a strong judge and humans at 80 to 85%, against humans agreeing with each other 81% of the time, and documented position, verbosity and self-preference biases. Berkeley's follow-up found something more awkward: criteria cannot reliably be written in advance, because grading outputs is how people work out what their criteria are. A judge needs validating against human labels before it is trusted, and re-validating when the criteria move.